ØKA2014 Introduction to Forecasting Models
- Course codeØKA2014
- Number of credits7,5
- Teaching semester2026 Spring
- Language of instructionEnglish
- CampusLillehammer
- Required prerequisite knowledge
None
The topics covered are:
- Forecasting concepts
- Probability and statistics
- Criteria for successful forecasts
- Graphic analysis and descriptive statistics
- Modelling trends, seasons, cycles
- ARIMA models
- Regression models
- Evaluating forecasts
- Combining forecasts
- Co-integration models
- Volatility models
Learning Outcome
Upon passing the course, students have achieved the following learning outcomes:
The student
- know the key concepts of forecasting and its application in economics, business, and finance
- know about the various time series components and suggest various techniques that can be used to model them properly
- is able to justify the use of various models or techniques based on model assumptions or other selected criteria
- can explain the main assumptions of regression based techniques in forecasting and discuss potential consequences if these are violated
- has knowledge of selected research on forecasting applications and performance within business/economics/finance
The student
- can collect business/financial/economic data from a range of data sources and subsequently organize and prepare them for further analysis
- can use graphical tools and descriptive statistics to explore data properties
- can apply selected techniques on real life data using appropriate software
- can construct forecasts by combing forecasting models
- can build forecast models for volatility and correlation
- can critically evaluate the performance of the various techniques using appropriate accuracy measures
The student
- can conduct own research project using the data and techniques covered in the course
- can summarize the key findings in the research project in an academic report and be able to discuss them with peers
The following teaching methods are used:
- Lectures
- Computer labs with guidance
- Assignments and case studies
- Termpaper writing and presentation with guidance
- Two practical forecasting assignments.
- Term paper and oral presentation of key results.
| Form of assessment | Grading scale | Grouping | Duration of assessment | Support materials | Proportion | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home exam | ECTS - A-F | Individual | 48 Hour(s) |
| 100 |
Reading list
No reading list available for this course