ØKA2014 Introduction to Forecasting Models

    • Number of credits
      7,5
    • Teaching semester
      2024 Spring
    • Language of instruction
      English
    • Campus
      Lillehammer
    • Required prerequisite knowledge

      None

Course content

The topics covered are:

  • Forecasting concepts
  • Probability and statistics
  • Criteria for successful forecasts
  • Graphic analysis and descriptive statistics
  • Modelling trends, seasons, cycles
  • ARIMA models
  • Regression models
  • Evaluating forecasts
  • Combining forecasts
  • Co-integration models
  • Volatility models

Learning Outcome

Upon passing the course, students have achieved the following learning outcomes:

Knowledge

The student

  • know the key concepts of forecasting and its application in economics, business, and finance
  • know about the various time series components and suggest various techniques that can be used to model them properly
  • is able to justify the use of various models or techniques based on model assumptions or other selected criteria
  • can explain the main assumptions of regression based techniques in forecasting and discuss potential consequences if these are violated   
  • has knowledge of selected research on forecasting applications and performance within business/economics/finance
Skills

The student

  • can collect business/financial/economic data from a range of data sources and subsequently organize and prepare them for further analysis
  • can use graphical tools and descriptive statistics to explore data properties
  • can apply selected techniques on real life data using appropriate software
  • can construct forecasts by combing forecasting models
  • can build forecast models for volatility and correlation
  • can critically evaluate the performance of the various techniques using appropriate accuracy measures
General competence

The student

  • can conduct own research project using the data and techniques covered in the course
  • can summarize the key findings in the research project in an academic report and be able to discuss them with peers
Teaching and working methods

The following teaching methods are used:

  • Lectures
  • Computer labs with guidance
  • Assignments and case studies
  • Termpaper writing and presentation with guidance
Required coursework
  • Two practical forecasting assignments.
  • Term paper and oral presentation of key results.
Assessments
Form of assessmentGrading scaleGroupingDuration of assessmentSupport materialsProportionComment
Home exam
ECTS - A-F
Individual
48 Hour(s)
  • All
100

Reading list

Faculty
Inland School of Business and Social Sciences
Department
Department of Business Administration